Personally no. I remain sceptical about imputed p2e on almost all non tangible deliverables, ad revenue aside. Inflated licence costs and accounting tricks and brand power appear to a shitload of value carried into being. But, some companies (apple) are sitting on a lot of money, and their value proposition has grounding in real goods and a walled garden.
Others, (tesla) are precarious despite a rocket ride of share price and others (spacex) are changing a landscape in a specific, high cost area.
China operates in a different model. It has different cost of capital, labour, compliance. It also has a giant domestic market, 3x the scale of the US, and had three decades or more of enforced savings. The scale of suppressed spending demand in that place cannot be understated across this time.
India is more interesting in some ways because it's forcing its middle class out into the world and also growing its domestic economy, but without the Chinese state planning drives.
I think the next 50 years belongs to Asia. Europe will have to rethink itself, in a demographic decline, but resistance to growing its missing labour force from the obvious places in the Middle East and Africa. Latam economies seem stuck in the Sargasso sea of boom-bust.
I don't see how the US comes back from removing the underpinnings of the post Bretton Woods world of mutual trust.
I should point out a senior citizen friend invested in every stock I decried on moral and financial grounds and made bank on his stake over 18 months including crypto ETFs (God...) and I meanwhile depend on fund managers to plot my slow and steady pathway to the natural 7% longterm return. So, there's that: people who ignore me do significantly better in the short term.
"I don't see how the US comes back from removing the underpinnings of the post Bretton Woods world of mutual trust."
There never was any. Many countries were cheating us on corporate ownership, regulations, tariffs, I.P. theft, etc. Others taking our markets as elites offshored our jobs. Many doing serious, human, rights violations on top of it. All kinds of international corruption.
The U.S. itself always tried to coerce others into its empire with protection, aid, petrodollars, and so on. That we had a Five Eyes agreement with priority ovet other partnerships shows we don't trust most countries much at all.
Peace was a lie. It was more like a Cold War for politicians and corporations mixed with some military interventions in unstable (for them) areas. Then, U.S. wanted to re-balance the trade deals to favor us by doing to them a fraction of what they did to us. They're responding. It's heating up.
Who knows what will happen. I'm glad our trade deals might benefit our job market now even if it hurts for a while to reverse the past. Don't forget that we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs during prior trade deals. They hurt us for nothing but now we're hurting for maybe something.
I think you objectify a lot of "they" in this and a conversation about that will probably descend into ad hom rapidly. Suffice to say I agree with almost nothing you have said here, except it's true an awful lot of cheap production economies have shocking human rights abuses and low to no labour laws.
You appear quite bitter towards your own state as well as mine and everyone else's. There's a lot of "everybody lies" on the table. I do not think all bilateral trade is based on lies and I do not think there is only a zero sum winner and loser outcome on the table, Implicit in your response.
There have been periods of extreme excess (DotCom bust, the end of the ZIRP era), but overall I find it hard to argue that there hasn't been value creation for investors.
>China
Investing in China is a different paradigm than investing in US companies. By and large, Chinese companies do not put returning capital to shareholders as the top priority, and they are also restrained by government priorities (and it's not smart to violate the red lines - both the explicit and implicit red lines - see the tech crackdown a few years back).
This also goes for one of the most important elements for VC, which is cashing out. Remember DIDI and their clawed back IPO? In those cases the investors don't just lose their money, the people who violated the principles may be taken in for re-education and get blackballed from business entirely.
That said, the mainland Chinese equity/IPO space has gotten much more developed recently, and the government has even prioritized promoting things like the STAR (tech) exchange. This should theoretically make pushing startups to IPO have less friction, and I'd expect Chinese VC to continue to develop amidst this backdrop (and sure, valuations could rise with it). At the end of the day the Chinese startup scene doesn't have the trillion dollar right tail like the US does though. Returns are a bit capped, because anything of critical importance is going to be at least partially guided by the state instead of in the US, where by and large it's entirely about shareholders.
There is a world before them and a world after them. The world was never the same after Windows 95, or the iPhone or Facebook or Google.
However a rising tide lifts all the boats and there are many unjustified rises that rely on politics, culture wars and generally not a genuine consumer driven thirst for quality of life.
Musk companies are a perfect example of that.
1) A 2025 Tesla is not that different compared to a 2002 Mercedes, it's pretty much the same cunsumer experience actually, except with different propellent for political/culture wars purposes.
2) SpaceX rockets are about as impactful in the life of the avg. American as the Apollo ones were. Empty show of force kinda patriotism
3) And Twitter is basically the same as it was before the takeover.
Personally no. I remain sceptical about imputed p2e on almost all non tangible deliverables, ad revenue aside. Inflated licence costs and accounting tricks and brand power appear to a shitload of value carried into being. But, some companies (apple) are sitting on a lot of money, and their value proposition has grounding in real goods and a walled garden.
Others, (tesla) are precarious despite a rocket ride of share price and others (spacex) are changing a landscape in a specific, high cost area.
China operates in a different model. It has different cost of capital, labour, compliance. It also has a giant domestic market, 3x the scale of the US, and had three decades or more of enforced savings. The scale of suppressed spending demand in that place cannot be understated across this time.
India is more interesting in some ways because it's forcing its middle class out into the world and also growing its domestic economy, but without the Chinese state planning drives.
I think the next 50 years belongs to Asia. Europe will have to rethink itself, in a demographic decline, but resistance to growing its missing labour force from the obvious places in the Middle East and Africa. Latam economies seem stuck in the Sargasso sea of boom-bust.
I don't see how the US comes back from removing the underpinnings of the post Bretton Woods world of mutual trust.
I should point out a senior citizen friend invested in every stock I decried on moral and financial grounds and made bank on his stake over 18 months including crypto ETFs (God...) and I meanwhile depend on fund managers to plot my slow and steady pathway to the natural 7% longterm return. So, there's that: people who ignore me do significantly better in the short term.
"I don't see how the US comes back from removing the underpinnings of the post Bretton Woods world of mutual trust."
There never was any. Many countries were cheating us on corporate ownership, regulations, tariffs, I.P. theft, etc. Others taking our markets as elites offshored our jobs. Many doing serious, human, rights violations on top of it. All kinds of international corruption.
The U.S. itself always tried to coerce others into its empire with protection, aid, petrodollars, and so on. That we had a Five Eyes agreement with priority ovet other partnerships shows we don't trust most countries much at all.
Peace was a lie. It was more like a Cold War for politicians and corporations mixed with some military interventions in unstable (for them) areas. Then, U.S. wanted to re-balance the trade deals to favor us by doing to them a fraction of what they did to us. They're responding. It's heating up.
Who knows what will happen. I'm glad our trade deals might benefit our job market now even if it hurts for a while to reverse the past. Don't forget that we lost hundreds of thousands of jobs during prior trade deals. They hurt us for nothing but now we're hurting for maybe something.
I think you objectify a lot of "they" in this and a conversation about that will probably descend into ad hom rapidly. Suffice to say I agree with almost nothing you have said here, except it's true an awful lot of cheap production economies have shocking human rights abuses and low to no labour laws.
You appear quite bitter towards your own state as well as mine and everyone else's. There's a lot of "everybody lies" on the table. I do not think all bilateral trade is based on lies and I do not think there is only a zero sum winner and loser outcome on the table, Implicit in your response.
>over the past 25 years are justified?
There have been periods of extreme excess (DotCom bust, the end of the ZIRP era), but overall I find it hard to argue that there hasn't been value creation for investors.
>China
Investing in China is a different paradigm than investing in US companies. By and large, Chinese companies do not put returning capital to shareholders as the top priority, and they are also restrained by government priorities (and it's not smart to violate the red lines - both the explicit and implicit red lines - see the tech crackdown a few years back).
This also goes for one of the most important elements for VC, which is cashing out. Remember DIDI and their clawed back IPO? In those cases the investors don't just lose their money, the people who violated the principles may be taken in for re-education and get blackballed from business entirely.
That said, the mainland Chinese equity/IPO space has gotten much more developed recently, and the government has even prioritized promoting things like the STAR (tech) exchange. This should theoretically make pushing startups to IPO have less friction, and I'd expect Chinese VC to continue to develop amidst this backdrop (and sure, valuations could rise with it). At the end of the day the Chinese startup scene doesn't have the trillion dollar right tail like the US does though. Returns are a bit capped, because anything of critical importance is going to be at least partially guided by the state instead of in the US, where by and large it's entirely about shareholders.
> considering they operate at a fraction of the cost compared to U.S. companies?
Data?
Microsoft, Apple, Google, Facebook, Amazon, Ebay, Nvidia, Netflix...
There is a world before them and a world after them. The world was never the same after Windows 95, or the iPhone or Facebook or Google.
However a rising tide lifts all the boats and there are many unjustified rises that rely on politics, culture wars and generally not a genuine consumer driven thirst for quality of life.
Musk companies are a perfect example of that.
1) A 2025 Tesla is not that different compared to a 2002 Mercedes, it's pretty much the same cunsumer experience actually, except with different propellent for political/culture wars purposes.
2) SpaceX rockets are about as impactful in the life of the avg. American as the Apollo ones were. Empty show of force kinda patriotism
3) And Twitter is basically the same as it was before the takeover.