It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."
So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.
But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.
Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.
I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.
You can place your bets against the US, and considering how unstable things are it might pay off down the road. I think that however ugly the economy gets in the next few months/years this isn't the impending collapse of the US economy, so it'll probably improve again eventually. That said, I've considered converting some cash to foreign currencies whose value is less likely to decline as quickly.
Things will probably get worse before they get better and I'm not sure that there's much most people can do about it anyway besides giving up and buying Labubus (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1O6bN2zWSM)
> UBS notes that it is not yet forecasting a recession at this time, but anticipates an extended phase of stagnant economic growth. Its own "credit metrics-based" recession probability, Fortune writes, has roughly doubled to 41 percent since January.
What is the point in a discussion if no one reads the actual article?
Keep in mind that is actually a bet both that there is a recession and that the US government admits there's a recession. The odds of that are probably viewed as different than the odds of just a recession.
No, you're trying to draw an equivalence with the Fed here, and its not at all valid. The current US administration fired the BLS commissioner for a bad jobs report and is actively suing news outlets (and installing "fairness checkers" at others). That destroys credibility. There have been accusations that the Fed put their finger on the scale for Biden but none of that is grounded in actual fact; just the fact that the Fed is not aggressively cutting rates just because the President asks for it.
It would be necessary to have the list of past predictions from UBS for this figure to have any meaning. Otherwise you fall into the trap of "Economists successfully predicted 10 of the last 4 recessions".
In addition to this, I think the headline is confused because the article later says: "UBS averaged the hard data together with inverted yield curve and credit markets to produce an aggregate recession probability of 52% for July..."
So 52%, not 93%, and I can't find a link to where UBS published this information.
But here are some other recent figures from UBS (or at least attributed to them):
2022-05-05: 0% https://www.ubs.com/global/en/investment-bank/insights-and-d...
2022-06-21: 40% https://finance.yahoo.com/news/odds-hard-landing-u-economy-2...
2022-08-30: 60% https://www.investing.com/news/stock-market-news/ubs-raises-...
2023-07-19: Goldman Sachs says 20% https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/the-probabili...
2024-08-27: 25% https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/ubs-wealth-management-rai...
I think the number is largely useless, and this article is even moreso.
It seems betting markets are now allowed in the US? I keep seeing advertisements for them. They'd be an awesome tool for this stuff.
Edit: there's one open bet on a US recession in 2025 on Kalshi that's gone down to only a 5% chance. Sort of fascinating how it's exact opposite of what TFA is saying. I'd link but not sure if that's kosher.
Is there one for 2026? I’m guessing if there is you’ll see one trending down while the other is trending up, for obvious reasons.
The betting markets are all betting based on whether the US with announce that it's in a recession (I think), which probably has different (lower) odds than actually being in a recession. It at least makes sense that it's different, but that's a huge difference.
I guess it's kinda like betting on who will win an election vs. betting on a candidate conceding an election. The odds aren't necessarily the same, even though they're (on paper) closely related events.
Let’s say, I know recession begins (whatever that means) in exactly 60 days. What are the financially savvy moves to make free money?
Given this bonkers market, even if 100% of the world recognized the US was in recession, I am not sure what you can predict would happen.
You can place your bets against the US, and considering how unstable things are it might pay off down the road. I think that however ugly the economy gets in the next few months/years this isn't the impending collapse of the US economy, so it'll probably improve again eventually. That said, I've considered converting some cash to foreign currencies whose value is less likely to decline as quickly.
Things will probably get worse before they get better and I'm not sure that there's much most people can do about it anyway besides giving up and buying Labubus (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l1O6bN2zWSM)
Invest in gold mining stocks and/or ETFs (see NUGT).
Actually, you're already a little late on this. Gold is up almost 40% in 2025 but most observers seem to think it still has room to run.
Doesn't gold also go down during a market crash?
Not with the dollar falling against all major world currencies and treasury bond yields rising.
Basically, we have a perfect storm of economic idiocy brewing on multiple fronts and gold and commodities are likely to be one of the few safe havens.
Capital is fleeing the US and not only can the Fed not stop it but it is under political pressure to accelerate it.
go to cash so you can buy assets at a lower price
Dollar lost 11% this year.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/?matchtype=e&tim...
https://www.morganstanley.com/insights/articles/us-dollar-de...
well aware. i'm still living in the US, using US dollars to buy US-based assets
Could always buy EUR or CHF
https://archive.today/zIjRL
https://fortune.com/2025/09/02/recession-probability-93-perc... | https://archive.today/AYnNH
> UBS notes that it is not yet forecasting a recession at this time, but anticipates an extended phase of stagnant economic growth. Its own "credit metrics-based" recession probability, Fortune writes, has roughly doubled to 41 percent since January.
What is the point in a discussion if no one reads the actual article?
based on this https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/SAHMREALTIME we are nowhere close.
"the hard data"
Then perhaps they can just make a program that emits the exact probability at any time - and emit a chart like polymarket's
more likely bias.
wow tell us something we didnt know
polymarket says 8%
https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025
Keep in mind that is actually a bet both that there is a recession and that the US government admits there's a recession. The odds of that are probably viewed as different than the odds of just a recession.
yeah so true. Kind of like how the Fed sometimes misses on their actions, it's not realtime data, always looking months backward huh?
No, you're trying to draw an equivalence with the Fed here, and its not at all valid. The current US administration fired the BLS commissioner for a bad jobs report and is actively suing news outlets (and installing "fairness checkers" at others). That destroys credibility. There have been accusations that the Fed put their finger on the scale for Biden but none of that is grounded in actual fact; just the fact that the Fed is not aggressively cutting rates just because the President asks for it.
Bears are getting desperate and wishing for a recession,eh?