> If Russia is the first to fire a shot it will be easier to make the case that they're the bad guys
Sorry, if the country invading another European country while invading others' airspaces isn't clearly the bad guy to someone, the order of fire isn't going to matter.
Putin responds to force. Allowing these intrusions without consequence invites further provocation. Putin will bitch and moan about a downed fighter. But he'll also stop lobbing them across.
It’s worked out in as much as no NATO country in the east has been yet as tacked - despite all of them being smaller prey than Ukraine.
(I find it difficult to believe that Russia wouldn’t have embarked on an expansionist project if NATO had just kept out of its traditional sphere of influence after the fall of the USSR. Russia would still have rebounded from the vicious 90s with a desire for near-abroad dominance - and would have found many more avenues of advance.)
I'm reminded of the scenes of Tomorrow Never Dies where Carver tricks the HMS Devonshire into Chinese waters by meaconing the GPS signals and sending it off course.
Not that I think there's any deeper conspiracy here though. Just kind of an interesting "what if".
In contrast, Turkey shot down a Russian aircraft that had violated its airspace for seventeen seconds:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2015_Russian_Sukhoi_Su-24_shoo...
I genuinely don’t get why air defences aren’t being engaged. At Estonian and Polish really still open?
If Russia is the first to fire a shot it will be easier to make the case that they're the bad guys.
> If Russia is the first to fire a shot it will be easier to make the case that they're the bad guys
Sorry, if the country invading another European country while invading others' airspaces isn't clearly the bad guy to someone, the order of fire isn't going to matter.
Putin responds to force. Allowing these intrusions without consequence invites further provocation. Putin will bitch and moan about a downed fighter. But he'll also stop lobbing them across.
"Putin will bitch and moan about a downed fighter. But he'll also stop lobbing them across."
Such was the thinking that accompanied NATO expansion - Russians would bitch and moan but wouldn't do anything. Look how that worked out.
It’s worked out in as much as no NATO country in the east has been yet as tacked - despite all of them being smaller prey than Ukraine.
(I find it difficult to believe that Russia wouldn’t have embarked on an expansionist project if NATO had just kept out of its traditional sphere of influence after the fall of the USSR. Russia would still have rebounded from the vicious 90s with a desire for near-abroad dominance - and would have found many more avenues of advance.)
"I find it difficult to believe that Russia wouldn’t have embarked on an expansionist project"
Why?
Discussion (31 points, 11 hours ago, 15 comments) https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45302689
Russia will probably use their military exercise in Belarus to invade, just like they invaded Ukraine during a military exercise.
I wish it won't happen, but with Trump closing his eyes on Ukraine, and Trump being against NATO, this is an opportunity for Putin.
I really want to be wrong, but that's a possibility.
I'm reminded of the scenes of Tomorrow Never Dies where Carver tricks the HMS Devonshire into Chinese waters by meaconing the GPS signals and sending it off course.
Not that I think there's any deeper conspiracy here though. Just kind of an interesting "what if".
Nah, Russians do this routinely. Scroll down to the last bit on here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cx2y515gzq7o