Long term there is no bull case. Most of the cheap energy that we used to build society has been used up. The U.S. has no investments in renewables. It has no access to HREEs. It has lost a lot of its talent after gutting universities. Demographics indicate that the U.S. will stop growing in population. Yields tick steady higher as the realization that the U.S. has absolutely no plan to pay off its debt sets in. What happens when our economy reaches its maximum extent and stops growing? Not even degrowth – just a plateau. How do we pay down the debt without a tax hike that destroys the economy? The only way out is with inflation. Evidently, people are seeing this and so money flows into commodities, equities, and cryptocurrency.
> How do we pay down the debt without a tax hike that destroys the economy?
A tax hike won't destroy the economy, the current levels of corporate profits and market valuations allow for a lot higher taxes on profits above certain level.
> The only way out is with inflation.
Inflation is still a tax, it's a tax collected from the poor and given to the rich, it further enriches the already rich and impoverishes the middle and the poor.
Suggesting inflation as a cure for debt is both evil and a sort of anti-economics, a solution that wasn't, and isn't, a part of any social agreement, written or otherwise.
Moreover, the Fed mandates are a social agreement that promises to keep inflation low. Taxes, on the other hand, are the official way to pay back government debt, they are an official part of the social contract.
> A tax hike won't destroy the economy, the current levels of corporate profits and market valuations allow for a lot higher taxes on profits above certain level.
If we decided to raise taxes today, sure. But if the OBBB is anything to go by, we’ll keep cutting taxes and growing the debt until it’s too late.
> Inflation is still a tax
Never argued it wasn’t. I was referring to income taxes and duties in the OP.
> Suggesting inflation as a cure for debt
My opinion: The cure for the debt (and the economy writ large) is tax hikes on high income earners and increased social spending on services with net positive return (e.g. IRS, healthcare). (A healthy society is able to work more and therefore generate more tax revenue. Universal healthcare would also be net cheaper than the current system). This will, of course, never happen because people keep voting in Chuck Schumers and Donald Trumps.
> social contract
Trump doesn’t give a shit. I doubt he knows what “social contract” even is. He has usurped the power of the purse for himself, conducted illegal kidnappings and deportations, and erected concentration camps. He doesn’t care about the law or social norms and it seems like everyone else is just OK with that. This is the same Trump who is vying for control over the Fed and will get to pick 2 board governors this year. Suffice it to say there is a huge danger that he gets his way and we go back to rock-bottom interest rates. If he gets his way, Trump will absolutely abuse the Fed to pump the stock market and then mail a graph of SPY to his supporters like he did in his first term.
> He doesn’t care about the law or social norms and it seems like everyone else is just OK with that.
Nothing new, business people desire unquestioned power over their employees which makes them lousy politicians. However, I don't think we should accept that just because everyone else does and get into a situation where apathy begets apathy.
The question is, why aren't we talking in principle instead of accepting the idea of a doomed future and hiding our apathy behind everyone else's?
> Trump doesn’t give a shit.
How did that happen? How did he and the GOP get all the power? Where were the Dem party and the "liberal" media? And why?
I'm not sure bitcoin or other crypto really is a hedge against inflation. Looking at the BTC value historically, it seems fairly correlated with the s&p 500. So it's not going to protect you very well. Compare the btc value against something like VIPSX (vanguard treasury inflation protected bond fund) which had a fairly stable value even when bitcoin and s&p500 tanked.
Long term there is no bull case. Most of the cheap energy that we used to build society has been used up. The U.S. has no investments in renewables. It has no access to HREEs. It has lost a lot of its talent after gutting universities. Demographics indicate that the U.S. will stop growing in population. Yields tick steady higher as the realization that the U.S. has absolutely no plan to pay off its debt sets in. What happens when our economy reaches its maximum extent and stops growing? Not even degrowth – just a plateau. How do we pay down the debt without a tax hike that destroys the economy? The only way out is with inflation. Evidently, people are seeing this and so money flows into commodities, equities, and cryptocurrency.
> How do we pay down the debt without a tax hike that destroys the economy?
A tax hike won't destroy the economy, the current levels of corporate profits and market valuations allow for a lot higher taxes on profits above certain level.
> The only way out is with inflation.
Inflation is still a tax, it's a tax collected from the poor and given to the rich, it further enriches the already rich and impoverishes the middle and the poor.
Suggesting inflation as a cure for debt is both evil and a sort of anti-economics, a solution that wasn't, and isn't, a part of any social agreement, written or otherwise.
Moreover, the Fed mandates are a social agreement that promises to keep inflation low. Taxes, on the other hand, are the official way to pay back government debt, they are an official part of the social contract.
I agree with you about what should be... but I don't think that's what will be. I think inflation is the plan..
It is 100% the plan. Why does Trump want negative interest rates?
> A tax hike won't destroy the economy, the current levels of corporate profits and market valuations allow for a lot higher taxes on profits above certain level.
If we decided to raise taxes today, sure. But if the OBBB is anything to go by, we’ll keep cutting taxes and growing the debt until it’s too late.
> Inflation is still a tax
Never argued it wasn’t. I was referring to income taxes and duties in the OP.
> Suggesting inflation as a cure for debt
My opinion: The cure for the debt (and the economy writ large) is tax hikes on high income earners and increased social spending on services with net positive return (e.g. IRS, healthcare). (A healthy society is able to work more and therefore generate more tax revenue. Universal healthcare would also be net cheaper than the current system). This will, of course, never happen because people keep voting in Chuck Schumers and Donald Trumps.
> social contract
Trump doesn’t give a shit. I doubt he knows what “social contract” even is. He has usurped the power of the purse for himself, conducted illegal kidnappings and deportations, and erected concentration camps. He doesn’t care about the law or social norms and it seems like everyone else is just OK with that. This is the same Trump who is vying for control over the Fed and will get to pick 2 board governors this year. Suffice it to say there is a huge danger that he gets his way and we go back to rock-bottom interest rates. If he gets his way, Trump will absolutely abuse the Fed to pump the stock market and then mail a graph of SPY to his supporters like he did in his first term.
> He doesn’t care about the law or social norms and it seems like everyone else is just OK with that.
Nothing new, business people desire unquestioned power over their employees which makes them lousy politicians. However, I don't think we should accept that just because everyone else does and get into a situation where apathy begets apathy.
The question is, why aren't we talking in principle instead of accepting the idea of a doomed future and hiding our apathy behind everyone else's?
> Trump doesn’t give a shit.
How did that happen? How did he and the GOP get all the power? Where were the Dem party and the "liberal" media? And why?
It's cool to contemplate the mind-set required to view crypto as a defensive hedge.
I'm not sure bitcoin or other crypto really is a hedge against inflation. Looking at the BTC value historically, it seems fairly correlated with the s&p 500. So it's not going to protect you very well. Compare the btc value against something like VIPSX (vanguard treasury inflation protected bond fund) which had a fairly stable value even when bitcoin and s&p500 tanked.
A bull case is AI proves to be ok.
https://archive.is/Ywyoi
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