Interesting, biotech stocks have been notoriously hard to predict because their business model revolves around science, and it’s hard to know when the science is right. Depending on the situation, I think sentiment could potentially be a misleading/confounding variable here…
Sentiment is crucial - if you know sentiment is incorrectly oriented, you can capitalize on it. If you know it's correct, you can identify mispricing, and strategize accordingly.
Why do you think that LLMs would do any better than monkeys throwing darts?
I am raining on your parade but this is another in a long succession of ways to loose money.
The publicly available information in markets is priced very efficiently, us computer types do not like that and we like to think that our pattern analysis machines can do better than a room full of traders. They cannot.
The money to be made in markets is from private information and that is a crime (insider trading), is widespread, and any system like this is fighting it and will loose.
I am not entirely trying to get an additional insight on the market here actually in terms of better evaluating information, but rather, I am more curious to see if an LLM can perform the same than a human analyst at a lower latency. The latency for the market to react to catalysts is actually surprisingly high in biotech (in the order of hours of news release) compared to other domains so there may be some edge there.
Appreciate the comment though! I generally agree with your sentiment!
Interesting, biotech stocks have been notoriously hard to predict because their business model revolves around science, and it’s hard to know when the science is right. Depending on the situation, I think sentiment could potentially be a misleading/confounding variable here…
Sentiment is crucial - if you know sentiment is incorrectly oriented, you can capitalize on it. If you know it's correct, you can identify mispricing, and strategize accordingly.
Why do you think that LLMs would do any better than monkeys throwing darts?
I am raining on your parade but this is another in a long succession of ways to loose money.
The publicly available information in markets is priced very efficiently, us computer types do not like that and we like to think that our pattern analysis machines can do better than a room full of traders. They cannot.
The money to be made in markets is from private information and that is a crime (insider trading), is widespread, and any system like this is fighting it and will loose.
I am not entirely trying to get an additional insight on the market here actually in terms of better evaluating information, but rather, I am more curious to see if an LLM can perform the same than a human analyst at a lower latency. The latency for the market to react to catalysts is actually surprisingly high in biotech (in the order of hours of news release) compared to other domains so there may be some edge there.
Appreciate the comment though! I generally agree with your sentiment!
efficiency is not a given. also this is an eval set - they acknowledge the challenge themselves.
imho this is v cool