Sure, starting a prolonged war, having the Strait of Hormuz closed and its military bases destroyed while having the largest aircraft carrier forced to retreat, is all part of a larger plan. Everything going as predicted.
And the US, Israel, and EU member states have been pushing back to prevent that from happening for decades.
Stuxnet, the assassination of nuclear physicists [0], and the expansion of the DGSE's presence in Tehran [1] and various other actions that haven't been publicized or can't be announced have been going on for a reason.
The message matters waaaaay less than the messenger.
Qatar used to be pro-Iran until Iran started striking them 2 weeks ago.
Back when the entire Gulf blockaded Qatar from 2017-21, Qatar depended on Iran [0] for food. Qatar and Iran also had a gentleman's agreement to collaborate with each other to export LNG [1]. Both Qatar and Iran also collaborated with each other to support Hamas [2] and the Houthis [3].
The fact that a Qatari national employed by a think tank that is patronized by the Qatari royal family [4] has published this piece in Qatar's state-owned media is a massive about face and signals how livid Qatari policymakers are.
Heck, Qatar's interior ministry has begun arresting Iranian sympathizers [5], forced Hamas to denounce Iran [6], and taken control of Qatar's subreddit: "You might be anonymous but we aren’t, the mod team is known to the authorities and we’re trying our best to cooperate with them and comply with all the guidelines." [7].
The kind of pro-Iran state that has hosted the biggest US military base in the Middle East for decades.
International politics are messy, as there are too many actors with their own agendas. You try to avoid taking sides and to stay out of trouble, but sometimes you end up in trouble anyway due to the choices others made.
> The kind of pro-Iran state that has hosted the biggest US military base in the Middle East for decades...
Al Udeid and Exxon's stake in QatarEnergy is Qatar's tribute to the US to not be added onto sanctions lists for conducting business with Iran.
Al Udeid Airbase was only established in 1996 after Iran and Qatar began collaborating on LNG extraction in the early 1990s and after Iran helped put down a coup attempt in Qatar in 1996 [0].
Qatar's Energy Minister - who is also CEO of QatarEnergy - is also a member of Banu Ka'b, an Arab clan that still has blood ties in Ahvaz today.
> International politics are messy
I know. I used to work in the policy space. People really overestimate the history of the US presence in West Asia.
The only states we had deep continuous ties with in the region were Turkiye (their military junta was always pro-American and a core part of Operation Gladio) and Iran until the Shah was deposed.
Israel's primary defense benefactor until the 1990s was France, Saudi's primary defense benefactor until the 1980s was France (it was French special forces that put down al-Otaybi in 1979), and the Gulf+Jordan's was the UK then France.
The US on really entered the region in earnest after the 1973 oil crisis but pulled back after the Iran Embassy Crisis and the Beirut bombings which led the Reagan admin to decide to let the French and their allies+defense partners the Israelis and Turks manage that headache (but we'd gladly bankroll any anti-Soviet activities in the region), and we didn't return to the region until the Gulf War.
>China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut.
We have literally had like 5 headlines from major news agencies over the past few days confirming that Iran is exporting its own oil with what looks like close to 0 problems.
Disregarding the fact that the author has an interest in hyping US-Israel achievements in the war (as he admits he is associated with the US Department of State and intelligence agencies) it is objectively true that Iran's military leadership and infrastructure has been definitely degraded. If you factor in the assassination of Iran's leaders, Iran has also lost substantial experiential knowledge that is a setback and something its new political and military leaders will have to struggle with and re-acquire over time. Perhaps we are already seeing evidence of that with the hubris of the new Iranian leadership refusing the possibilities of a diplomatic engagement and / or a ceasefire (to provide some kind of exit ramp for a politically hassled Trump + Netanyahu, which could de-escalate the violence). (We see this kind of politically inexperienced narrow vision with Zelensky too, in Ukraine, who still unrealistically believes that his country can militarily force a nuclear armed, militarily superior opponent to end the hostilities on his terms).
While the Global South currently sympathises with Iran, prolonged warfare will disrupt the economies of many a country (due to the high energy prices), and sympathies and value-based politics will invariably be tossed in favour of increasing pressure on the weaker party - Iran - to end the conflict (possibly on politically unfavourable terms). Its neighbours will also become increasingly hostile and less tolerable to attacks on their soil. Moreover, prolonged warfare is also likely to degrade Iran's economic and military infrastructure further.
True that despite facing a militarily superior force, Iran has the ability to hurt its opponents, and has displayed great resilience in bearing hurts to itself too. However, such "scorched earth" policy needs to be matched with wise political pragmatism to not become a self-defeatist policy - after all, the strength of the genocidal regime of Netanyahu and the imperialist administration of Trump is their wanton disregard for international laws, human lives, human rights and the ability to feed of these kind of warfare and destruction to build-up their political reputation. A politically hassled Netanyahu and Trump are both also desperate politicians trying to avoid possible loss of power and jail time with this war, which means that they may increasingly resort to bombing of civilians and civilians infrastructure too to spin it as as a "win" against "muslim terrorists".
All that said, prolonged warfare against Iran will also hurt both the US and Israel.
The Americans needs to be mindful of their history with Iran - it is their political meddling in Iran that turned Iran hostile towards them and Trump isn't the first US president to try and salvage his presidency by attacking Iran. Jimmy Carter's Operation Eagle Claw (a military operation to rescue Americans captured by Iranian revolutionaries) was a failure that cost Carter his Presidency. Ronald Reagan, who replaced him, also initiated a military operation against Iran, through Iraq - the Iraq-Iran-Contra affair became Reagan's largest political scandal and severely damaged his reputation. The US invasion of Iraq strengthened Iranian influence in the region, and weakened the policy of dual containment of both Iran and Iraq. Any goal of militarily "defeating" Iran will have to keep the post-war Iraq scenario in mind. Iran is a highly educated society with women even outnumbering men in colleges. During the Bangladesh Liberation wars, one of the reasons the indian military was able to subdue the Pakistani army there so quickly was due to the educated Bangladeshi youths who formed the guerilla force of the resistance. Indian Generals observed that these educated youngsters were quick learners and thus easier to militarily train for intelligence gathering, resistance and saboteuring. Iran has a population of around 90 million. If Iran is "defeated" (occupied or not), even if 1% of their population turn to "terrorism" to defend themselves and continue the fight, we are talking about nearly 1 million highly-educated "terrorists" in the middle-east region.
For Israel too, the stakes are high. Nentahyahu's attack on his own country's democracy to become a Jewish Ayatollah -like dictator, and his genocidal warfare in Gaza has caused great damage to Israel's reputation internationally. Historic support for Israel amongst Americans is the lowest. The Iran war is not popular in the US - the more the American military gets involved and prolongs the Iran war and the more American soldiers die, Israel's reputation in America will suffer. Gallup notes that sympathy for Israel amongst the Democrats has dropped drastically, so much so that more Democrats (65%) support Palestinians than Israel today (Israelis No Longer Ahead in Americans' Middle East Sympathies - https://news.gallup.com/poll/702440/israelis-no-longer-ahead... ). While support for Israel amongst Republicans remain high, Republicans youths are increasingly distrusting and less sympathetic of Israel and more sympathetic towards Palestinians today (National Poll: Younger Republicans Are Diverging From Party Leadership On Israel - https://www.imeupolicyproject.org/polls/gop-israel-2025 ). So there is a real danger of Israel losing support amongst the Republicans too, thus curbing Israel's political influence in American politics. Without American political and military support, Israel will never be able to effectively defend itself. Everyone (including Trump), blames Israel for this war. Nobody in the world wants a prolonged war that will make oil and gas costlier and hurt their economy. Considering all this, seeking a military defeat of Iran may offer short-term gains but could be strategically short-sighted in the long run for Israel.
A prolonged war thus benefits no one. The war now hinges on the political egos of Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenie.
I am not sure how many members of this community actually living in one of those counties mentioned in the article (gulf and middle east) but, as an Israeli currently based in Abu Dhabi, this article echoes the voices that will bring peace and prosperity to the region.
The Iranians shockingly won the battle of the public opinion in the US.
In the building I live, my neighbors are from Iraq , Lebanon , Egypt , Australia , UK , and so on. My son plays with his friends from those very countries, and matter of fact we are living in the Emirates the dream of peaceful and partnership, respect and justice that we were not able to have back home.
Anywhere you are looking on a vicious conflict, you see the Iranian fingerprints, funds, etc.
New Iran, would be better for all, especially for Iranians who are living under the most vicious regime currently operating. Yes, far more than N Korea.
Again, if you are looking at this from the outside, thinking that the twitter posts, and headlines in media are data, your model is simply wrong.
Sure, starting a prolonged war, having the Strait of Hormuz closed and its military bases destroyed while having the largest aircraft carrier forced to retreat, is all part of a larger plan. Everything going as predicted.
“Tehran was less than two weeks away from enriching enough uranium for one nuclear bomb, according to US intelligence assessments.”
https://youtu.be/Vc_NanZ-Jos?si=HmZQyGZTG1VgqYaP
We’ve been hearing similar things for decades.
True... DECADES and nothing.
The US even destroyed its nuclear installations last year. lol
This is worse than a TV series.
And the US, Israel, and EU member states have been pushing back to prevent that from happening for decades.
Stuxnet, the assassination of nuclear physicists [0], and the expansion of the DGSE's presence in Tehran [1] and various other actions that haven't been publicized or can't be announced have been going on for a reason.
[0] - https://iranprimer.usip.org/blog/2020/dec/02/part-5-assassin...
[1] - https://www.intelligenceonline.fr/europe-russie/2023/11/24/a...
If it's working, it's working slowly and in a very, very bad way.
Yeah, right. No wonder - it's an article by the Qatari Al Jazeera.
The message matters waaaaay less than the messenger.
Qatar used to be pro-Iran until Iran started striking them 2 weeks ago.
Back when the entire Gulf blockaded Qatar from 2017-21, Qatar depended on Iran [0] for food. Qatar and Iran also had a gentleman's agreement to collaborate with each other to export LNG [1]. Both Qatar and Iran also collaborated with each other to support Hamas [2] and the Houthis [3].
The fact that a Qatari national employed by a think tank that is patronized by the Qatari royal family [4] has published this piece in Qatar's state-owned media is a massive about face and signals how livid Qatari policymakers are.
Heck, Qatar's interior ministry has begun arresting Iranian sympathizers [5], forced Hamas to denounce Iran [6], and taken control of Qatar's subreddit: "You might be anonymous but we aren’t, the mod team is known to the authorities and we’re trying our best to cooperate with them and comply with all the guidelines." [7].
Qatar was Iran's last friend in the Gulf.
[0] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2017/6/25/iran-hassan-rouhani...
[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_Pars/North_Dome_Gas-Cond...
[2] - https://www.dw.com/en/who-is-hamas/a-57537872
[3] - https://sites.bu.edu/pardeeatlas/research-and-policy/back2sc...
[4] - https://www.dohainstitute.edu.qa/EN/About/Pages/default.aspx
[5] - https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/3/3/qatar-announces-arre...
[6] - https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cvg3xk6xgyzo
[7] - https://www.reddit.com/r/qatar/comments/1rt2fth/timeout/
The kind of pro-Iran state that has hosted the biggest US military base in the Middle East for decades.
International politics are messy, as there are too many actors with their own agendas. You try to avoid taking sides and to stay out of trouble, but sometimes you end up in trouble anyway due to the choices others made.
> The kind of pro-Iran state that has hosted the biggest US military base in the Middle East for decades...
Al Udeid and Exxon's stake in QatarEnergy is Qatar's tribute to the US to not be added onto sanctions lists for conducting business with Iran.
Al Udeid Airbase was only established in 1996 after Iran and Qatar began collaborating on LNG extraction in the early 1990s and after Iran helped put down a coup attempt in Qatar in 1996 [0].
Qatar's Energy Minister - who is also CEO of QatarEnergy - is also a member of Banu Ka'b, an Arab clan that still has blood ties in Ahvaz today.
> International politics are messy
I know. I used to work in the policy space. People really overestimate the history of the US presence in West Asia.
The only states we had deep continuous ties with in the region were Turkiye (their military junta was always pro-American and a core part of Operation Gladio) and Iran until the Shah was deposed.
Israel's primary defense benefactor until the 1990s was France, Saudi's primary defense benefactor until the 1980s was France (it was French special forces that put down al-Otaybi in 1979), and the Gulf+Jordan's was the UK then France.
The US on really entered the region in earnest after the 1973 oil crisis but pulled back after the Iran Embassy Crisis and the Beirut bombings which led the Reagan admin to decide to let the French and their allies+defense partners the Israelis and Turks manage that headache (but we'd gladly bankroll any anti-Soviet activities in the region), and we didn't return to the region until the Gulf War.
[0] - https://www.danielpipes.org/6317/hamad-bin-jasim-bin-jabr-al...
>China, Tehran’s largest remaining economic partner, cannot receive Iranian crude while the strait is shut.
We have literally had like 5 headlines from major news agencies over the past few days confirming that Iran is exporting its own oil with what looks like close to 0 problems.
Iran does have an oil pipeline bypassing the Strait of Hormuz https://www.worldoil.com/news/2021/5/31/iran-opens-new-oil-e... but it doesn't have infinite capacity, so that doesn't mean there are zero problems.
Disregarding the fact that the author has an interest in hyping US-Israel achievements in the war (as he admits he is associated with the US Department of State and intelligence agencies) it is objectively true that Iran's military leadership and infrastructure has been definitely degraded. If you factor in the assassination of Iran's leaders, Iran has also lost substantial experiential knowledge that is a setback and something its new political and military leaders will have to struggle with and re-acquire over time. Perhaps we are already seeing evidence of that with the hubris of the new Iranian leadership refusing the possibilities of a diplomatic engagement and / or a ceasefire (to provide some kind of exit ramp for a politically hassled Trump + Netanyahu, which could de-escalate the violence). (We see this kind of politically inexperienced narrow vision with Zelensky too, in Ukraine, who still unrealistically believes that his country can militarily force a nuclear armed, militarily superior opponent to end the hostilities on his terms).
While the Global South currently sympathises with Iran, prolonged warfare will disrupt the economies of many a country (due to the high energy prices), and sympathies and value-based politics will invariably be tossed in favour of increasing pressure on the weaker party - Iran - to end the conflict (possibly on politically unfavourable terms). Its neighbours will also become increasingly hostile and less tolerable to attacks on their soil. Moreover, prolonged warfare is also likely to degrade Iran's economic and military infrastructure further.
True that despite facing a militarily superior force, Iran has the ability to hurt its opponents, and has displayed great resilience in bearing hurts to itself too. However, such "scorched earth" policy needs to be matched with wise political pragmatism to not become a self-defeatist policy - after all, the strength of the genocidal regime of Netanyahu and the imperialist administration of Trump is their wanton disregard for international laws, human lives, human rights and the ability to feed of these kind of warfare and destruction to build-up their political reputation. A politically hassled Netanyahu and Trump are both also desperate politicians trying to avoid possible loss of power and jail time with this war, which means that they may increasingly resort to bombing of civilians and civilians infrastructure too to spin it as as a "win" against "muslim terrorists".
All that said, prolonged warfare against Iran will also hurt both the US and Israel.
The Americans needs to be mindful of their history with Iran - it is their political meddling in Iran that turned Iran hostile towards them and Trump isn't the first US president to try and salvage his presidency by attacking Iran. Jimmy Carter's Operation Eagle Claw (a military operation to rescue Americans captured by Iranian revolutionaries) was a failure that cost Carter his Presidency. Ronald Reagan, who replaced him, also initiated a military operation against Iran, through Iraq - the Iraq-Iran-Contra affair became Reagan's largest political scandal and severely damaged his reputation. The US invasion of Iraq strengthened Iranian influence in the region, and weakened the policy of dual containment of both Iran and Iraq. Any goal of militarily "defeating" Iran will have to keep the post-war Iraq scenario in mind. Iran is a highly educated society with women even outnumbering men in colleges. During the Bangladesh Liberation wars, one of the reasons the indian military was able to subdue the Pakistani army there so quickly was due to the educated Bangladeshi youths who formed the guerilla force of the resistance. Indian Generals observed that these educated youngsters were quick learners and thus easier to militarily train for intelligence gathering, resistance and saboteuring. Iran has a population of around 90 million. If Iran is "defeated" (occupied or not), even if 1% of their population turn to "terrorism" to defend themselves and continue the fight, we are talking about nearly 1 million highly-educated "terrorists" in the middle-east region.
For Israel too, the stakes are high. Nentahyahu's attack on his own country's democracy to become a Jewish Ayatollah -like dictator, and his genocidal warfare in Gaza has caused great damage to Israel's reputation internationally. Historic support for Israel amongst Americans is the lowest. The Iran war is not popular in the US - the more the American military gets involved and prolongs the Iran war and the more American soldiers die, Israel's reputation in America will suffer. Gallup notes that sympathy for Israel amongst the Democrats has dropped drastically, so much so that more Democrats (65%) support Palestinians than Israel today (Israelis No Longer Ahead in Americans' Middle East Sympathies - https://news.gallup.com/poll/702440/israelis-no-longer-ahead... ). While support for Israel amongst Republicans remain high, Republicans youths are increasingly distrusting and less sympathetic of Israel and more sympathetic towards Palestinians today (National Poll: Younger Republicans Are Diverging From Party Leadership On Israel - https://www.imeupolicyproject.org/polls/gop-israel-2025 ). So there is a real danger of Israel losing support amongst the Republicans too, thus curbing Israel's political influence in American politics. Without American political and military support, Israel will never be able to effectively defend itself. Everyone (including Trump), blames Israel for this war. Nobody in the world wants a prolonged war that will make oil and gas costlier and hurt their economy. Considering all this, seeking a military defeat of Iran may offer short-term gains but could be strategically short-sighted in the long run for Israel.
A prolonged war thus benefits no one. The war now hinges on the political egos of Trump, Netanyahu and Khamenie.
[dead]
I am not sure how many members of this community actually living in one of those counties mentioned in the article (gulf and middle east) but, as an Israeli currently based in Abu Dhabi, this article echoes the voices that will bring peace and prosperity to the region.
The Iranians shockingly won the battle of the public opinion in the US.
In the building I live, my neighbors are from Iraq , Lebanon , Egypt , Australia , UK , and so on. My son plays with his friends from those very countries, and matter of fact we are living in the Emirates the dream of peaceful and partnership, respect and justice that we were not able to have back home.
Anywhere you are looking on a vicious conflict, you see the Iranian fingerprints, funds, etc.
New Iran, would be better for all, especially for Iranians who are living under the most vicious regime currently operating. Yes, far more than N Korea.
Again, if you are looking at this from the outside, thinking that the twitter posts, and headlines in media are data, your model is simply wrong.