Independent researcher here. I've developed a framework that derives a single normalized performance metric (the A score) from published two-qubit gate error rates using architecture-specific parameters from first principles — zero free parameters, nothing fitted to historical data.
Issue 001 covers 11 active platforms: IonQ EQC, Quantinuum Helios/H1-1/H2-1, Google Willow, IBM Heron R2/Nighthawk, IonQ Forte, Rigetti Cepheus, QuEra Gemini, Rigetti Ankaa-3.
Each platform gets: global ranking, material floor analysis, temperature sensitivity predictions, trajectory projections, and wall concern level. The report includes 10 numbered falsifiable predictions with specific dates.
Key findings: IonQ EQC is the only platform to have crossed the fault-tolerance threshold. IBM Nighthawk regressed from Heron R2 — the data confirms the Nb+AlOx material wall. Google Willow at 7.5 mK is predicted to cross QEC without a new chip (P007).
PDF: https://iamperformance.online/IAMPerformance_Issue001.pdf
Site: https://iamperformance.net
Independent researcher here. I've developed a framework that derives a single normalized performance metric (the A score) from published two-qubit gate error rates using architecture-specific parameters from first principles — zero free parameters, nothing fitted to historical data. Issue 001 covers 11 active platforms: IonQ EQC, Quantinuum Helios/H1-1/H2-1, Google Willow, IBM Heron R2/Nighthawk, IonQ Forte, Rigetti Cepheus, QuEra Gemini, Rigetti Ankaa-3. Each platform gets: global ranking, material floor analysis, temperature sensitivity predictions, trajectory projections, and wall concern level. The report includes 10 numbered falsifiable predictions with specific dates. Key findings: IonQ EQC is the only platform to have crossed the fault-tolerance threshold. IBM Nighthawk regressed from Heron R2 — the data confirms the Nb+AlOx material wall. Google Willow at 7.5 mK is predicted to cross QEC without a new chip (P007). PDF: https://iamperformance.online/IAMPerformance_Issue001.pdf Site: https://iamperformance.net