Government lost a case and refunded money to corporations. Consumers got nothing.
Tariff induced inflation has caused volatility in the bond market. I was forced to refinance our mortgage at 7% when it could've been less than 6%, had it not been for the volatility and uncertainty. As a result I'm $900 poorer every month.
And the whole argument about bringing manufacturing jobs back- never materialized.
If you tie tariffs to policy that encourages domestic production capacity and a tariff ramp rate so that tariffs eventually encourage domestic consumption economically, certainly. This provides time to build manufacturing capacity to meet baseline demand, and prevents supply and price shocks. That is unlikely to happen for the foreseeable future. With that said, full blown automation is more likely to replace poor labor practices over the long term, as well as eliminating conflict materials from production supply chains by avoiding their need whenever possible (think cobalt).
China deploys more robotics than anyone else in the world. Who is likely to solve this problem first? The world is rapidly aging, and the future of physical labor in manufacturing is not human. I somewhat humorously imagine a future where some of my products will be certified "100% non human labor produced." Could the US and Europe do the same? Certainly, if there is the will to do so. When will this happen? And how long will it take once the will has arrived?
Hannah Ritchie, Edouard Mathieu, and Lucas Rodés-Guirao (2026) - “Which countries have already passed peak population, and when will the rest do so?” Published online at OurWorldinData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260818-184715/which-cou...' [Online Resource] (archived on August 18, 2026).
UN: Ageing - https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/ageing ("In 63 countries and areas – containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024 – the size of the population peaked before 2024. This group includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.")
> China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan by placing robotics at the heart of its modern industrial system. The aim is to pivot its AI research towards physical applications with robots as main drivers for economic growth. This is a next step in the country´s strong automation development: China´s manufacturing industry already has an operational stock of around 2 million units — approximately 4.5 times more than the global no. 2, Japan. 54% of annual industrial robots installed worldwide were deployed in China. This is according to the World Robotics 2025 Report, presented by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).
Additional facts for context:
71% of the global population lives in countries below replacement rate, as of this comment.
China is expected to reach low carbon energy generation being 70% of their total electrical generation in 2027.
China's electricity generated from coal has fallen below 50% as of 2026.
China is the economy decarbonizing the fastest, ergo where you would want manufacturing to take place if carbon impact were a component of decisioning.
I certainly trust the numbers coming out of China that can be verified independently from directly observing or observing second order effects. Renewables, batteries, oil storage and depletion/fill rate, exports, etc.
China is rapidly moving away from coal, they also have the most super-critical coal generators (trump's "clean coal" that has never materialized). America is unlikely to build another coal plant. Solar and wind are now cheaper, coal does not have the expected lifetime to pay back the the upfront costs of a new generator. It's unclear who has worse energy policies for climate change, but it is no longer China (even though they are still the largest burner of coal, that is rapidly changing and their direction is clear)
Are there any instance where tariffs left the people of the country in a better place?
> Is it worse to have our goods cost more
Apparently for Americans it is worse, that's why we continue to buy cheap stuff from Amazon and Walmart. Cost of living / affordability is the #1 issue for more than a decade now.
America's government was primarily funded by tariffs during our fastest growth period through the 18th and 19th centuries, our own history shows that tariffs are very good for building our own industries.
You trust any numbers produced by a totalitarian dictatorship?
Tariff has already proven to be a bad thing.
Prices have increased due to tariff.
Government lost a case and refunded money to corporations. Consumers got nothing.
Tariff induced inflation has caused volatility in the bond market. I was forced to refinance our mortgage at 7% when it could've been less than 6%, had it not been for the volatility and uncertainty. As a result I'm $900 poorer every month.
And the whole argument about bringing manufacturing jobs back- never materialized.
If you tie tariffs to policy that encourages domestic production capacity and a tariff ramp rate so that tariffs eventually encourage domestic consumption economically, certainly. This provides time to build manufacturing capacity to meet baseline demand, and prevents supply and price shocks. That is unlikely to happen for the foreseeable future. With that said, full blown automation is more likely to replace poor labor practices over the long term, as well as eliminating conflict materials from production supply chains by avoiding their need whenever possible (think cobalt).
China deploys more robotics than anyone else in the world. Who is likely to solve this problem first? The world is rapidly aging, and the future of physical labor in manufacturing is not human. I somewhat humorously imagine a future where some of my products will be certified "100% non human labor produced." Could the US and Europe do the same? Certainly, if there is the will to do so. When will this happen? And how long will it take once the will has arrived?
Hannah Ritchie, Edouard Mathieu, and Lucas Rodés-Guirao (2026) - “Which countries have already passed peak population, and when will the rest do so?” Published online at OurWorldinData.org. Retrieved from: 'https://archive.ourworldindata.org/20260818-184715/which-cou...' [Online Resource] (archived on August 18, 2026).
UN: Ageing - https://www.un.org/en/global-issues/ageing ("In 63 countries and areas – containing 28 per cent of the world’s population in 2024 – the size of the population peaked before 2024. This group includes China, Germany, Japan and the Russian Federation.")
Global Older Adult Population Projected to Nearly Double by 2060 - https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2026/older-ad... - August 31st, 2026
China Makes AI-powered Robots Core of National Strategy: China´s 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030) marks pivot to innovation - https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/china-makes-ai-power... - May 5th, 2026
> China has launched its 15th Five-Year Plan by placing robotics at the heart of its modern industrial system. The aim is to pivot its AI research towards physical applications with robots as main drivers for economic growth. This is a next step in the country´s strong automation development: China´s manufacturing industry already has an operational stock of around 2 million units — approximately 4.5 times more than the global no. 2, Japan. 54% of annual industrial robots installed worldwide were deployed in China. This is according to the World Robotics 2025 Report, presented by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR).
Additional facts for context:
71% of the global population lives in countries below replacement rate, as of this comment.
China is expected to reach low carbon energy generation being 70% of their total electrical generation in 2027.
China's electricity generated from coal has fallen below 50% as of 2026.
China is the economy decarbonizing the fastest, ergo where you would want manufacturing to take place if carbon impact were a component of decisioning.
(think in systems)
Excellent reply, thank you.
I agree with you that the tariffs would need to ramp up over time, maybe +10% a year.
You are right that AI is likely to end human labor (and then human lives shortly after).
You trust any numbers produced by a totalitarian dictatorship?
I certainly trust the numbers coming out of China that can be verified independently from directly observing or observing second order effects. Renewables, batteries, oil storage and depletion/fill rate, exports, etc.
China is rapidly moving away from coal, they also have the most super-critical coal generators (trump's "clean coal" that has never materialized). America is unlikely to build another coal plant. Solar and wind are now cheaper, coal does not have the expected lifetime to pay back the the upfront costs of a new generator. It's unclear who has worse energy policies for climate change, but it is no longer China (even though they are still the largest burner of coal, that is rapidly changing and their direction is clear)
Are there any instance where tariffs left the people of the country in a better place?
> Is it worse to have our goods cost more
Apparently for Americans it is worse, that's why we continue to buy cheap stuff from Amazon and Walmart. Cost of living / affordability is the #1 issue for more than a decade now.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Betteridge%27s_law_of_headline...
America's government was primarily funded by tariffs during our fastest growth period through the 18th and 19th centuries, our own history shows that tariffs are very good for building our own industries.
You trust any numbers produced by a totalitarian dictatorship?