Just image a scenario where they try to sanction Norway because of this, would be so interesting and it's never 0 chance because both are financial warfare decisions.
All sovereign bond demand will decrease generally, because of the failure of defined benefit pensions everywhere. Basically nobody new with any sense in the private sector does them, they're being phased out in the public sector, and this is a global phenomenon because of the general poor agent-principal problems and extreme expense now that we see a generation with the damn things and all that. Who the hell buys a 30-year treasury? Pensions do, frankly. Still holds for other sovereign debt everywhere. Norway's sovereign fund has elements of pension-nature to it but it's not a pension, it's a giant pile of stuff.
They’re just issuing short dated ones because nobody is buying the long ones.
That points more to this blowing up than a phase out. Governments like the US don’t really have a plan B on what happens if they can’t issue sovereign bonds. You can print but if the US decides to print everything they currently borrow then the USD reserve status isn’t going to survive
Just image a scenario where they try to sanction Norway because of this, would be so interesting and it's never 0 chance because both are financial warfare decisions.
Seems like a reason for everyone to withdraw at once. If you can't use an asset it isn't your asset.
All sovereign bond demand will decrease generally, because of the failure of defined benefit pensions everywhere. Basically nobody new with any sense in the private sector does them, they're being phased out in the public sector, and this is a global phenomenon because of the general poor agent-principal problems and extreme expense now that we see a generation with the damn things and all that. Who the hell buys a 30-year treasury? Pensions do, frankly. Still holds for other sovereign debt everywhere. Norway's sovereign fund has elements of pension-nature to it but it's not a pension, it's a giant pile of stuff.
> they're being phased out in the public sector,
They’re just issuing short dated ones because nobody is buying the long ones.
That points more to this blowing up than a phase out. Governments like the US don’t really have a plan B on what happens if they can’t issue sovereign bonds. You can print but if the US decides to print everything they currently borrow then the USD reserve status isn’t going to survive
Citation:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0ll9rEtoRrs
Earlier: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49564189