You haven’t seen the bond market then. Look at what it’s doing. Ignorance is bliss until it isn’t. Interest rates will only keep going up for the foreseeable future, increasing the cost of all credit products, slowing the economy further along with rising oil prices.
> The combination of near-term energy-driven inflation and the long-term debt trajectory means that it will cost more to borrow money for the foreseeable future.
Not investing advice, but locking in long term debt at low interest rates would potentially be a good idea. I have, so US policy inflates it away over time.
“How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” by Ray Dalio is a great book on this topic.
Broke isn’t failure, broke is expensive credit and an economy that tries to exist on expensive credit (comparitively). America has run on cheap credit for decades, and that is ending. It’s not like an Applebees and the doors are going to close tomorrow. The economy will slow down, it will keep getting more expensive to borrow against what cashflow, tax revenue, and wages can support, and those second order effects will be what slowly impairs the economy.
It is one thing to say economy will slow down, of course it will, we have ran a bull market for very long time that slowdown as well as serious correction is a given. It is entirely different thing to quote “How Countries Go Broke”
If you bet against America, you will always lose in the long run. In the short run, if you can time it (which no one can, that is why I have see “Dalio” warnings in my Apple News “front page” for 1/2 a decade now) you may score some points in the short run. In the long run, you will always lose, period
> If you bet against America, you will always lose in the long run. In the short run, if you can time it (which no one can, that is why I have see “Dalio” warnings in my Apple News “front page” for 1/2 a decade now) you may score some points in the short run. In the long run, you will always lose, period
You are betting on history and hope, not data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. How you justify your investment thesis is up to you.
The most sound finacial advice for all Americans has always been “buy S&P 500 and forget about it” for 200 years. There have been a lot bigger things then “5% bond yield” (see like 1920’s) :) It’ll all be fine cause it always is in the long run. Dooms-dayerism is good for clickbaits, not otherwise
wondering if journalists just copy/paste this year after year or write it from scratch each year :)
the first of like-this-one I remeber from early 2000’s…
You haven’t seen the bond market then. Look at what it’s doing. Ignorance is bliss until it isn’t. Interest rates will only keep going up for the foreseeable future, increasing the cost of all credit products, slowing the economy further along with rising oil prices.
> The combination of near-term energy-driven inflation and the long-term debt trajectory means that it will cost more to borrow money for the foreseeable future.
Not investing advice, but locking in long term debt at low interest rates would potentially be a good idea. I have, so US policy inflates it away over time.
“How Countries Go Broke: The Big Cycle” by Ray Dalio is a great book on this topic.
https://economicprinciples.org/downloads/How-Countries-Go-Br...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/How_Countries_Go_Broke
Boomark this and ping me when America goes broke.
Not trying to be too funny but I would be broke (am very much so not) listening to garbage fro Dalio and other financial “experts.”
Broke isn’t failure, broke is expensive credit and an economy that tries to exist on expensive credit (comparitively). America has run on cheap credit for decades, and that is ending. It’s not like an Applebees and the doors are going to close tomorrow. The economy will slow down, it will keep getting more expensive to borrow against what cashflow, tax revenue, and wages can support, and those second order effects will be what slowly impairs the economy.
Bookmarked!
A 5% Treasury Yield Is Raising New Risks for Markets, Economy - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-09-13/a-5-treas... | https://archive.today/ay72t - September 13th, 2026
(think in systems)
It is one thing to say economy will slow down, of course it will, we have ran a bull market for very long time that slowdown as well as serious correction is a given. It is entirely different thing to quote “How Countries Go Broke”
If you bet against America, you will always lose in the long run. In the short run, if you can time it (which no one can, that is why I have see “Dalio” warnings in my Apple News “front page” for 1/2 a decade now) you may score some points in the short run. In the long run, you will always lose, period
> If you bet against America, you will always lose in the long run. In the short run, if you can time it (which no one can, that is why I have see “Dalio” warnings in my Apple News “front page” for 1/2 a decade now) you may score some points in the short run. In the long run, you will always lose, period
You are betting on history and hope, not data. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. How you justify your investment thesis is up to you.
The most sound finacial advice for all Americans has always been “buy S&P 500 and forget about it” for 200 years. There have been a lot bigger things then “5% bond yield” (see like 1920’s) :) It’ll all be fine cause it always is in the long run. Dooms-dayerism is good for clickbaits, not otherwise