An underappreciated fact is that the Japanese/German renewable push starting in the early 2000s contributed a lot toward the global state of solar power now.
Solar programs/subsidies there is how a lot of local (and later Chinese) industry was bootstrapped despite being far from competitive with fossil energy back then.
Those initiatives might have accelerated the whole solar power industry by half a decade or more. We are now reaping even (indirect) benefit from industrializing countries (Pakistan, India, etc) that go straight to solar instead of conventional plants.
People often insist that western climate initiatives are "meaningless", "wasteful" and "ineffective", but examples like this prove that global effects are absolutely realistic.
If those two countries had fully invested into nuclear power back then, we might be significantly worse off right now as far as global CO2 emissions are concerned.
At least in America the greatest hurdle imo is both the cost of labor and the local/state red tape that has been pushed from local grid operators. Balcony solar should be available in all states across the country. I know on my state they require all this additional steps to get solar (including a bs solar study for your home) which just amounts to a significant permit fee which makes the investment less economical.
The problem with Solar is once someone buys it they can continuously use it for a long time with out participating in the economy. That is unacceptable especially from local grid providers and many in the energy sector and since China makes the best solar panels in quality and quantity that will take us maybe more than 3 years to catch up just in quality, it makes them even more bold in not allowing or making it hard for solar to proliferate. The risk is that the cost of energy will be high enough not to make manufacturing and other sector competitive enough but that does not matter as long as energy sector makes money the US can decline the number one goal is each individuals own goal there is no collective goal unless it just happens to be sadly a goal that is shared and individually beneficial.
> The problem with Solar is once someone buys it they can continuously use it for a long time with out participating in the economy.
An odd statement. That could be considered a "problem" for an incumbent energy provider, like say Exxon. But it would be considered a solution for an energy user who would now have more money to devote to something else in the economy.
This is also supported by the Federal gov since recently power inverters were banned and there is no major US maker of power inverters this is purposely a policy designed to stymie Solar proliferation. This policy was bought and paid for by the energy sector.
It's not just the energy sector though being big business I assume they do the bulk of the lobbying.
The electrician's trade groups and that whole supply chain are also scared shitless of a future where you can't lord a meter connection over people.
To an only slightly lesser degree building inspectors and Karens of all colors are also not fans for similar reasons. In exurban and rural areas (i.e. below a certain density depending on climate) the idea that some guy could just move into an old house or slap up a new building, throw up a bunch of panels on a stand, throw a bunch of batteries in a shed and live there without cutting checks to all sorts of parties and jumping through all sorts of compliance hoops and that you'd have to go after them after the fact is a big threat to these people's ability to micromanage how other people live.
But the US also has a large number of people who are extremely interested in "off grid" living (or even just LARPing it), I would expect them to be able to exert a lot of counter pressure
With the electrification of transportation and heating, electricity consumption is only going to increase. Not every household will be able to offset this with their own panels. More centralized solar plants and grid-level batteries will still be a thing.
As for panel production, you don’t really have to make them locally. Panels are sold with minimal margins (although your tariffs could allow for some local margins). You can make more money off installation and related services.
The solution is to charge for power, not for energy.
Utilities are reacting to this problem by separating connection fees from energy fees. The big problem is this is highly regressive. Rich and poor people pay the same connection fee.
The solution is to also charge by peak power use. Rich people use more power on cloudy days than poor people do.
This has the great advantage of aligning with utility costs. Utilities pay a great amount of money to be able to handle peak loads, not so much for normal loads.
The frontier AI companies have occaisionally been using their latest and greatest (and most power hungry) models to research large efficiency gains for their older, lesser models.
“If you have a massive cloud formation, the rooftop PV production can drop by so much that it looks like you have lost basically almost a nuclear power station.”
A good problem to have but still a problem. Who would have thought weather forecasting would be critical to grid maintenance.
Weather forecasting is important even before solar/wind. Extreme, temporary temperature swings require the power company to be prepared for the extra power generation.
With just coal/gas/hydro, this can be mitigated much easily, but still needs to be handled with care. If not, then the lack of power generation could cause brownouts for hours or days as backup power generation takes time to spin up.
Since we build for "1-in-a-100", it's expected we'll have these failures, as a 1% chance every year is a pretty high chance that will keep increasing as these power companies rely more on non-failsafe power generation strategies. Texas is the extreme example, where over-reliance on those systems caused too much damage.
It always has been. A weather forecast is a major input into future demand prediction. Not just for heating and cooling, but there are also many second order effects.
Also severe weather predictions are crucial to have the staff ready to respond to grid outages due to weather.
Weirdly phrased since when you have a full, real nuclear plant you need to be ready to deal with that tripping off the grid suddenly, because it happens regularly.
> Weirdly phrased since when you have a full, real nuclear plant you need to be ready to deal with that tripping off the grid suddenly, because it happens regularly.
It does not, what is with solar proponents and lying?
I like the idea of getting rooftop solar. The solar cells themselves are cheap. But the hitch is (1) living far north, (2) cloudy climate, (2) hiring professionals, (3) paying for an inverter and other interconnections, (4) paying for a "safe for a house" battery if I want any solar after 14:00 in the winter (N) ...
This is Norway and it's been raining all summer. So you'd think hydro would make all of this moot. Doesn't seem it. Because the rates were high even after all the rain.
I have high hopes for solar and batteries, but for the grid. I don't like the idea of a grid upgrade coming indirectly via thousands of bespoke homeowner increase my property value projects.
Inverters are indeed expensive, so are batteries (and you will need batteries to make good use of solar; otherwise, you will be getting the ridiculously low energy company rates for what you over-produce). Being far north is somewhat compensated by the fact that solar batteries run much more efficiently when they are cold. Also, modern solar cells are surprisingly effective on cloudy days, unless it is really dark.
> Being far north is somewhat compensated by the fact that solar batteries run much more efficiently when they are cold
Uh? It's a major pain in the ass, you actually need to heat these batteries, most won't even charge below 0c, their peak performance is in the 15-25c range
Sodium Ion Batteries like those under mass development by CATL offer an exceptionally Wide Operation-Temperature Range from −70 to 100.
Worth keeping an eye on. These have recently moved into mass production but I’ve personally not yet seen them come to market as available to retail buyers. Keep an eye out though!
That far north batteries and solar don't make much sense in winter, by the time you can cover three cloudy winter days you'll generate enough energy in summer to be legally considered as a small local electric plant.
I live in Western Wyoming. We feed off cheap Pacific Northwestern hydro. It's a fixed price. (I pay a bit more for wind + hydro, but it's still fixed.)
Coincidentally quoting some of the most despised grid operators in the world. Which obviously correlates with a desire to flee them when offered a solar/battery escape hatch.
> energy groups in some [Australian] states are having to literally give away excess power generated during the middle of the day.
And yet they needed to be forced to offer this by government and most responded by upping grid connection fees and rates at other times, actively undermining a move that would be to the benefit of the entire nation. Curious that they weren't more keen to get rid of that horrible solar energy that's threatening their grid balance if it meant they had to reduce the price to raise demand.
The article lists top PV manufacturers and their efficiency ratings, production warranty, and other statistics. There are several Chinese companies on the list with 25+ year warranties. The article's top-rated manufacturer in the category of "Longest production warranty" is ZNShine Solar, a Chinese company that offers a 30 year warranty.
They all come with ~30 years warranty, I think you're stuck in the 1970s when it comes to Chines manufacturing capabilities, the top of the line chinese factories are just as good as EU/US ones, probably even more high tech
For a residential setting, installation quality probably dominates, and I doubt country of origin is statistically significant. Otherwise look at warranties which specify a performance curve over lifetime (generally 25y, also some are independently guaranteed by an insurance company that might actually survive that long). There are public performance datasets from NREL, TUV, but be careful about choosing representative examples (e.g. utility scale reliability is different from rooftop)
My main gripe with solar is that it doesn't last long enough. The panels have to be replaced about every two decades, but they take a bit more than two decades to amortize. This is why everyone I know that wanted to get into solar did not get into solar.
An underappreciated fact is that the Japanese/German renewable push starting in the early 2000s contributed a lot toward the global state of solar power now.
Solar programs/subsidies there is how a lot of local (and later Chinese) industry was bootstrapped despite being far from competitive with fossil energy back then.
Those initiatives might have accelerated the whole solar power industry by half a decade or more. We are now reaping even (indirect) benefit from industrializing countries (Pakistan, India, etc) that go straight to solar instead of conventional plants.
People often insist that western climate initiatives are "meaningless", "wasteful" and "ineffective", but examples like this prove that global effects are absolutely realistic.
If those two countries had fully invested into nuclear power back then, we might be significantly worse off right now as far as global CO2 emissions are concerned.
At least in America the greatest hurdle imo is both the cost of labor and the local/state red tape that has been pushed from local grid operators. Balcony solar should be available in all states across the country. I know on my state they require all this additional steps to get solar (including a bs solar study for your home) which just amounts to a significant permit fee which makes the investment less economical.
The problem with Solar is once someone buys it they can continuously use it for a long time with out participating in the economy. That is unacceptable especially from local grid providers and many in the energy sector and since China makes the best solar panels in quality and quantity that will take us maybe more than 3 years to catch up just in quality, it makes them even more bold in not allowing or making it hard for solar to proliferate. The risk is that the cost of energy will be high enough not to make manufacturing and other sector competitive enough but that does not matter as long as energy sector makes money the US can decline the number one goal is each individuals own goal there is no collective goal unless it just happens to be sadly a goal that is shared and individually beneficial.
> The problem with Solar is once someone buys it they can continuously use it for a long time with out participating in the economy.
An odd statement. That could be considered a "problem" for an incumbent energy provider, like say Exxon. But it would be considered a solution for an energy user who would now have more money to devote to something else in the economy.
This is also supported by the Federal gov since recently power inverters were banned and there is no major US maker of power inverters this is purposely a policy designed to stymie Solar proliferation. This policy was bought and paid for by the energy sector.
It's not just the energy sector though being big business I assume they do the bulk of the lobbying.
The electrician's trade groups and that whole supply chain are also scared shitless of a future where you can't lord a meter connection over people.
To an only slightly lesser degree building inspectors and Karens of all colors are also not fans for similar reasons. In exurban and rural areas (i.e. below a certain density depending on climate) the idea that some guy could just move into an old house or slap up a new building, throw up a bunch of panels on a stand, throw a bunch of batteries in a shed and live there without cutting checks to all sorts of parties and jumping through all sorts of compliance hoops and that you'd have to go after them after the fact is a big threat to these people's ability to micromanage how other people live.
But the US also has a large number of people who are extremely interested in "off grid" living (or even just LARPing it), I would expect them to be able to exert a lot of counter pressure
Those people aren't wealthy enough to have any real political power, though.
With the electrification of transportation and heating, electricity consumption is only going to increase. Not every household will be able to offset this with their own panels. More centralized solar plants and grid-level batteries will still be a thing.
As for panel production, you don’t really have to make them locally. Panels are sold with minimal margins (although your tariffs could allow for some local margins). You can make more money off installation and related services.
The solution is to charge for power, not for energy.
Utilities are reacting to this problem by separating connection fees from energy fees. The big problem is this is highly regressive. Rich and poor people pay the same connection fee.
The solution is to also charge by peak power use. Rich people use more power on cloudy days than poor people do.
This has the great advantage of aligning with utility costs. Utilities pay a great amount of money to be able to handle peak loads, not so much for normal loads.
Hopefully at some point the price of tokens will collapse, forcing data centers onto cheaper renewable energy in order to stay profitable.
The frontier AI companies have occaisionally been using their latest and greatest (and most power hungry) models to research large efficiency gains for their older, lesser models.
Or the quality of tokens will improve such that I don't have to ask model A to critique and summarize tokens from model B.
forever link https://ghostarchive.org/archive/Nkrxp
“If you have a massive cloud formation, the rooftop PV production can drop by so much that it looks like you have lost basically almost a nuclear power station.”
A good problem to have but still a problem. Who would have thought weather forecasting would be critical to grid maintenance.
Weather forecasting is important even before solar/wind. Extreme, temporary temperature swings require the power company to be prepared for the extra power generation.
With just coal/gas/hydro, this can be mitigated much easily, but still needs to be handled with care. If not, then the lack of power generation could cause brownouts for hours or days as backup power generation takes time to spin up.
TVA experienced an issue like this in 2023, where it was inadequately ready for a winter storm: https://www.publicpower.org/periodical/article/report-examin...
Since we build for "1-in-a-100", it's expected we'll have these failures, as a 1% chance every year is a pretty high chance that will keep increasing as these power companies rely more on non-failsafe power generation strategies. Texas is the extreme example, where over-reliance on those systems caused too much damage.
It always has been. A weather forecast is a major input into future demand prediction. Not just for heating and cooling, but there are also many second order effects.
Also severe weather predictions are crucial to have the staff ready to respond to grid outages due to weather.
> Who would have thought weather forecasting would be critical to grid maintenance.
They already have to keep an eye on the weather. For example, to predict demand spikes during heatwaves or cold snaps.
Weirdly phrased since when you have a full, real nuclear plant you need to be ready to deal with that tripping off the grid suddenly, because it happens regularly.
> Weirdly phrased since when you have a full, real nuclear plant you need to be ready to deal with that tripping off the grid suddenly, because it happens regularly.
It does not, what is with solar proponents and lying?
And yet in the US one tripped this month (that we are only two weeks into) and one tripped last month too.
HN link for last month's:
https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=49320856
I like the idea of getting rooftop solar. The solar cells themselves are cheap. But the hitch is (1) living far north, (2) cloudy climate, (2) hiring professionals, (3) paying for an inverter and other interconnections, (4) paying for a "safe for a house" battery if I want any solar after 14:00 in the winter (N) ...
This is Norway and it's been raining all summer. So you'd think hydro would make all of this moot. Doesn't seem it. Because the rates were high even after all the rain.
I have high hopes for solar and batteries, but for the grid. I don't like the idea of a grid upgrade coming indirectly via thousands of bespoke homeowner increase my property value projects.
Inverters are indeed expensive, so are batteries (and you will need batteries to make good use of solar; otherwise, you will be getting the ridiculously low energy company rates for what you over-produce). Being far north is somewhat compensated by the fact that solar batteries run much more efficiently when they are cold. Also, modern solar cells are surprisingly effective on cloudy days, unless it is really dark.
> Being far north is somewhat compensated by the fact that solar batteries run much more efficiently when they are cold
Uh? It's a major pain in the ass, you actually need to heat these batteries, most won't even charge below 0c, their peak performance is in the 15-25c range
Sodium Ion Batteries like those under mass development by CATL offer an exceptionally Wide Operation-Temperature Range from −70 to 100.
Worth keeping an eye on. These have recently moved into mass production but I’ve personally not yet seen them come to market as available to retail buyers. Keep an eye out though!
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/anie.202116930?a...
https://www.ess-news.com/2026/04/20/a-closer-look-at-catls-n...
That far north batteries and solar don't make much sense in winter, by the time you can cover three cloudy winter days you'll generate enough energy in summer to be legally considered as a small local electric plant.
> rates were high even after all the rain
Do Norwegian hydro prices vary with rainfall?
I live in Western Wyoming. We feed off cheap Pacific Northwestern hydro. It's a fixed price. (I pay a bit more for wind + hydro, but it's still fixed.)
Coincidentally quoting some of the most despised grid operators in the world. Which obviously correlates with a desire to flee them when offered a solar/battery escape hatch.
> energy groups in some [Australian] states are having to literally give away excess power generated during the middle of the day.
And yet they needed to be forced to offer this by government and most responded by upping grid connection fees and rates at other times, actively undermining a move that would be to the benefit of the entire nation. Curious that they weren't more keen to get rid of that horrible solar energy that's threatening their grid balance if it meant they had to reduce the price to raise demand.
It used to be Chinese panels were the worse quality with short lifespans. Now they're everywhere.
They don't have short lifespans anymore.
Do you have a good source for lifespans of panels by country of origin?
I meant it as a general thing. These days all manufacturers, from all countries, offer 20+ year warranties. Not just Chinese ones.
However you inspired me to do some research, and I found this: https://www.cnet.com/home/energy-and-utilities/best-solar-pa....
The article lists top PV manufacturers and their efficiency ratings, production warranty, and other statistics. There are several Chinese companies on the list with 25+ year warranties. The article's top-rated manufacturer in the category of "Longest production warranty" is ZNShine Solar, a Chinese company that offers a 30 year warranty.
Thanks! What is the significance of all-black models?
I think it's more cosmetic than anything else. All black panels blend in better with dark roofs.
80% of panels are made in China, if they were all so terrible I doubt they would dominate the market so much
> if they were all so terrible I doubt they would dominate the market
Plenty of markets are dominated by the less-durable product offered at a lower up-front cost.
They all come with ~30 years warranty, I think you're stuck in the 1970s when it comes to Chines manufacturing capabilities, the top of the line chinese factories are just as good as EU/US ones, probably even more high tech
> you're stuck in the 1970s when it comes to Chines manufacturing capabilities
Probably not, having done contract manufacturing in China quite recently. Asking for a source isn't the same as disputing an assertion.
> top of the line chinese factories are just as good as EU/US ones, probably even more high tech
This is my guess. I like to substantiate my guesses.
For a residential setting, installation quality probably dominates, and I doubt country of origin is statistically significant. Otherwise look at warranties which specify a performance curve over lifetime (generally 25y, also some are independently guaranteed by an insurance company that might actually survive that long). There are public performance datasets from NREL, TUV, but be careful about choosing representative examples (e.g. utility scale reliability is different from rooftop)
Paywalled article, so who knows what it says.
My main gripe with solar is that it doesn't last long enough. The panels have to be replaced about every two decades, but they take a bit more than two decades to amortize. This is why everyone I know that wanted to get into solar did not get into solar.
Offensively cheap to the billionaires because they'll start losing consistent money.
I believe the article means like attacking, not like rude. English is weird sometimes.