> If trends continue, China will have 10x the electricity of the US in 10 years
Trends won't continue, because China only has 4x the population. Trends would require China to come up with per-capita electricity demand that the US can't figure out, at a time when the US is also electrifying while leading the way in AI development. It's easy to think the first half of an S-curve will continue indefinitely if one doesn't try to look for the factors that would lead to the second half.
> Sell as many AI chips into China as possible, use the money to purchase solar panel and battery factories, and build out electricity capacity as quickly as possible.
This seems counterproductive if the goal is to stay ahead on AI. Besides which, why not just build the factories locally? It's not as if they come with the workers, you're going to have to train them anyway.
> We see a lot of short term zero sum thinking in action.
Recognizing competition is not the same thing as zero-sum thinking, and it is not "short-term thinking" to worry about near-term risks when they're that big. That said, the buildout has started. Take the slope from the last 10 or so years and multiply it by 4, and things don't look nearly so dire.
> I’m worried that this is what these people see as the only way out.
This conclusion is wildly non-sequitur, not supported by the previous points.
> If trends continue, China will have 10x the electricity of the US in 10 years
Trends won't continue, because China only has 4x the population. Trends would require China to come up with per-capita electricity demand that the US can't figure out, at a time when the US is also electrifying while leading the way in AI development. It's easy to think the first half of an S-curve will continue indefinitely if one doesn't try to look for the factors that would lead to the second half.
> Sell as many AI chips into China as possible, use the money to purchase solar panel and battery factories, and build out electricity capacity as quickly as possible.
This seems counterproductive if the goal is to stay ahead on AI. Besides which, why not just build the factories locally? It's not as if they come with the workers, you're going to have to train them anyway.
> We see a lot of short term zero sum thinking in action.
Recognizing competition is not the same thing as zero-sum thinking, and it is not "short-term thinking" to worry about near-term risks when they're that big. That said, the buildout has started. Take the slope from the last 10 or so years and multiply it by 4, and things don't look nearly so dire.
> I’m worried that this is what these people see as the only way out.
This conclusion is wildly non-sequitur, not supported by the previous points.